Climate Update for Asia   A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated April 2001 Highlights Drought Persists in South-West and Central Asia  High rainfall in South-East Asia associated with Western Pacific Warming  Anomalously warmer temperatures follows record cold in the winter in Northern Asia Greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures forecast for Equatorial Eastern Asia La Nina declines and moderate warming forecasted to continue in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Extreme Warming in the Mascarene region in the Indian Ocean may affect monsoons Warming in the Western Equatorial Indian Oceans and Bay of Bengal  Links to January 2001 Asia Climate Update            April 2001 Asian Climate News      Contents   Climate Impacts Hazards Agriculture Health Water Resources Climate Summary Precipitation Seasonal Precipitation Climatology: January to March Temperatures  Seasonal Temperature Climatology: January to March Oceanic Conditions April to June 2001 Forecasts Introduction Precipitation Seasonal Precipitation Climatology: April to June Temperature Seasonal Temperature Climatology: April to June Extreme Events Methods July to September 2001 Forecasts  Precipitation Temperature Forecast Quality Report   Compiled by Lareef Zubair in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest produced by Anji Seth and coworkers, IRI Map Room updated by Brad Lyon and Matt Barlow and Forecasts producted by IRI . Feedback: is welcome as to shortcomings and request for additional material.  send e-mail to Lareef Zubair, lareef@iri.ldeo.columbia.edu  Climate Impacts Hazards March Afghanistan and Pakistan Continued drought and war are worsening conditions in Afghanistan, where in the northeast the United Nations has warned that food stocks were nearing exhaustionr. Many residents have resorted to eating animal fodder and many have eaten their seeds, making the prognosis for the next harvest particularly bleak. In Pakistan concerns are mounting about the failure of winter rains and severe shortages of irrigation water. In Punjab, where 75 percent of Pakistan wheat is produced, irrigation canals have only 15-20 percent of the water requirement. The provincial Government of Sindh, which accounts for 42 percent of the rice production, has banned sowing of rice in its major rice growing areas, due to the severe water shortage. (WFP; ReliefWeb)  February Afghanistan Refugees in Northern Afghanistan have been severely affected by a cold wave and 260 persons have died within refugee camps. The UN estimates that up to 600,000 Afghans have been displaced or been made refugees between last year and this year to date. Following his recent mission to Afghanistan and Pakistan, UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Kenzo Oshima said about one million Afghans were at risk of famine. Without the prompt delivery of aid, he said, a humanitarian catastrophe could ensue. (UNRC; ReliefWeb)  Indonesia Heavy rainfalls in Indonesia have led to flooding and landslides in Java. The Indonesian meteorological agency reported that the heavy downpours threatened Bogor, Jatiwangi, North-Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo and Lombok. (UNRC)  January Afghanistan "The situation in Afghanistan has seriously deteriorated in the course of 2000 and early 2001," said United Nations Co-ordinator Erick de Mul at a January press conference in Islamabad. Two years of drought, many years of war, and lack of investment in productive capacity have culminated in a major human tragedy. "This country has never faced a humanitarian crisis of such dimensions before," he added. A cold wave hit the western provincial capital city of Heratat the end of January, with temperatures falling to as low as -25 C, resulting in some 150 deaths in the IDP (internally displaced people) camps outside the city. (OCHA; OCHA)  Mongolia Following the worst winter in decades last year, which seriously undermined the food security of large numbers of people especially nomadic herders, this year the country again faces a devastating winter which will greatly exacerbate existing food supply problems. Thick snow has blanketed livestock pastures for the second year in succession on which herds usually feed in winter and temperatures have fallen to as low as -50 C. The harsh winter has already killed about 600 000 animals, on which a third of the population rely entirely for their livelihood and income. With more snow forecast in February and March, it is currently projected that several million livestock could be again lost this year. The current livestock losses come on top of some 3 million animals lost in 1999/2000, which represented around 10 percent of the total herd. (OCHA, OCHA)  Siberia Heavy snowstorms with unprecedented frosts have been raging in Russia's Far East and Siberian regions during these first days of the new year. The temperature fell to -55 in some Russian regions on 5 Jan, with winds as strong as 25-30 metres a second. Temperatures plunged to as low as -58 F (-50 C) as part of an ongoing cold spell over a two-week period. Authorities in the district of Krasnoyarsk, 2,200 miles (3,500 km) east of Moscow, reported that they expected to deplete all of their coal reserves by mid Jan 2001. Police restricted traffic in the region in order to prevent further freezing deaths of motorists and passengers. (CNN)  To Top Agriculture March Turkey   Light to moderate showers covered Turkey's winter wheat areas, although unseasonable warmth maintained high crop moisture requirements in other parts of the region. (JAWF)  Southeast Asia Heavy showers slowed fieldwork throughout Indochina, Malaysia, and Java, Indonesia. (JAWF)  February Afghanistan and Iraq  Despite recent beneficial rains, a very serious food crisis has emerged following two consecutive years of drought and continuing civil conflict with renewed displacements of thousands of people. In Iraq, two years of drought have decimated crops and exacerbated the already tight food supply situation. (FAO/GIEWS Food Report)  Asia In Asia severe winter weather in several countries is raising serious concerns over additional food emergencies. In the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, an already desperate food situation following a poor harvest in 2000, has been greatly exacerbated by the coldest winter in 50 years. Lack of heating and food through the Public Distribution System may result in an increasing number of fatalities. Similarly, in Mongolia, large numbers of livestock, which provide an important source of livelihood and income for a large section of the population, have died due to severe winter conditions and food assistance is urgently required in parts. (FAO/GIEWS Food Report)  West Asia Stormy weather increased irrigation reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. (JAWF) Southeast Asia Heavy showers caused flooding and benefited rice in Java, Indonesia, but caused more flooding in the eastern Philippines. (JAWF)  To Top Health March No significant climate-related reports February No significant climate related reports January Saudi Arabia Since the beginning of the Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak last September, 843 people have been affected with the disease, including 114 deaths. Concern over additional RVF cases exists with the appearance of mosquito-breeding swamps in Jeddah caused by recent rain storms. (ProMED)  India A cold wave in northern and eastern India left 68 dead from hypothermia. Most of the victims were homeless people in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. (EA)  Siberia Over 200 people have been admitted to hospitals with frostbite following frigid temperatures of -50 C. Rising fuel prices and energy shortages are worsening the situation. (IFRC)  To Top Water Resources March No significant climate-related reports February No significant climate-related reports January Sri Lanka The receding water levels of the Mahaweli reservoirs due to shortfall in rains has left some reservoirs at 20% of capacity in a month in which it is usually full. Electricity rates have been raised by 25% and air conditioners and non-essential consumption have been banned. The next season's forecast is for climtological conditions.  (Ceylon Daily News and IRI)  Iran Paralyzing snow and avalanches killed seven people in the western province of Kermanshah, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported. However, the much needed blanket of snow covered most of the Iranian plateau, bringing some relief to a nation which is emerging from two consecutive years of crippling drought. According to a United Nations report, last year's drought cost Iran 3.5 billion U.S. dollars in losses. (CNN)  To Top Climate Summary for Asia Precipitation The Phillipines and and parts of Thailand experienced very heavy rainfall while there was continued drought in South-West Asia, South-Eastern China and parts of Indonesia. Drought persisted over much of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan,  Uzbekistan,  Kazakhstan, Tajikstan and Kyrgyzstan.  Precipitation Anomaly For the Periods from January to March 2001. [ ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp ) - ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp climatology ) ] * 3-month (ending on date shown) Precip. Anomaly [cm] Map from IRI Map Room

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January to March : Seasonal Rainfall Climatology

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia, Map derived from IRI Map Room

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Temperature

The extreme cold in the winter in Central Siberia in Russia Eastern Mongolia and North-Eastern China has been followed by anomalously warm conditions in the JFM season.

mean [ NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS anomaly temp ]

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia, Map derived from IRI Map Room

Global Sea Surface Temperatures

         Midlatitudes: Above average SSTs in the North Atlantic have weakened from last month with little
         change elsewhere.  Warmer than average SSTs persist across the central South Atlantic and South
         Pacific basins as well as the .  Colder than  average SSTs continue across the central North Pacific.

Asian Region Oceans: Of particular consequence to the region are the following regional features. First, the strong warming in the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the South China Seas. Second, the significant warm pool in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Third, the extreme highs near the Mascarene Islands in the South-Eastern Indian Ocean.

Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Difference on January 3, 2001  from the 1950-1979 mean, with data from the Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA. Map from IRI Map Room

 This Climate Outlook is dependent on the quality of the sea surface temperature (SST)  predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful  information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed evolution of SSTs.  Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here. The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat different from those used by National Meteorological Services in particular regions and may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas.

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia Map from IRI Map Room

Precipitation Forecast
(Forecasts Maps for "Asia" and West Asia as found in the Africa Map)

(Forecasts Map for West Asia is found in the Africa Map Below)

Maps from IRI Forecasts

            Region VI) enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over northeastern Iran and
            northern Afghanistan, all of Turkmenistan, all of Uzbekistan, most of Kazakhstan, western
            Tajikstan and Kyrgyzstan;

            Region VII) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over much of the east
            China Plain, southern South Korea, and southernmost Japan;

            Region VIII) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over most of the
            Philippines, Cambodia, most of Thailand, central and southern Vietnam, and southern Burma;

            Region IX) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over New Guinea,
            Papua New Guinea and  the Solomon Islands;

            Region X) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over sections of the
            western islands in the equatorial Pacific northeast of the Solomon Islands;

            Region XI) slightly enhanced probabilities of near-normal to below-normal precipitation over
            Java and southern Sumatra.

July - September 2001 Precipitation Forecast:
            The following regions of enhanced probabilities of precipitation anomalies are indicated:

            # slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over much of Pakistan
            and eastern Afghanistan;

            # slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over southern India;

            # slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over Cambodia and
            southern areas of Thailand and Burma;

            #  slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over southern Sumatra
            and western Borneo;

            # slightly enhanced probabilities of near-normal to below-normal precipitation over
            much of eastern Malaysia and Indonesia, excluding Sumatra and western Borneo;

            # slightly enhanced probabilities of near-normal to above-normal precipitation over the
            near equatorial western and central Pacfic from approximately 150E to 160W.
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DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia Map from IRI Map Room

April - June 2001:
            The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

            Region XI) slightly enhanced probabilities of near-normal to above-normal temperatures across
            extreme northwestern Russia;

            Region XII) slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures across all but
            southwestern Saudi Arabia, much of Oman, and all of the United Arab Emirates, all of Kuwait,
            and most of Iraq and Iran;

            Region XIII) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures across Cambodia,
            southern Vietnam, and the southernmost sections of Thailand;

            Region XIV) enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures across northeastern China
            and the southern Manchurian Plain, all of the Korean Peninsula, and central and southern Japan;
            slightly enhanced risk of extremely above-normal seasonal temperatures over central and
            southern Honshu and Shikoku islands of Japan;

            Region XV) slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures across northern Japan,
            most of Sakhalin Island, and southern and central Kamchatka;

Extreme Events Forecast
            Region XVI) greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures across the central and
            southern Philippines, northeastern Borneo, Celebes, Timor, New Guinea and nearby islands.

July - September 2001 Temperature Forecast:
            The following regions of enhanced probabilities of temperature anomalies are indicated:

            #  slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures over most of Java and
            northward to southernmost Borneo;

            #  slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures from central Sumatra
            and Peninsular Malaysia, much of Borneo, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands as well as nearby
            islands.

Methods

The following procedures and information were used to prepare this Climate Outlook:

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST -- particularly heavy weighting has been given to the NOAA /NCEP, Climate Modeling Branch coupled model
• Statistical forecasts of Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature
• The response of Atmospheric global circulation model (GCM) predictions to the present and predicted SST patterns

is obtained and statistical methods are used to combine the model output.

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Download  IRI forecast quality report here.
 
 

Material for the Climate Impacts in Asia has been extracted from the UN/OCHA Reliefweb (RW), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Doctors Without Borders (DWB), Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) ,USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF).Material for this Global Climate Summary has been extracted from the IRI Climate Data Library, the NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center, the Climate Diagnostics Center, and the NOAA ERL Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratories. Additional information has been obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, and CPTEC, Brazil.  Additional information was obtained from the NOAA/OGP Climate Information Program, Red Cross/CNN/IBM Disaster Relief, Earth Alert, CNN, and the Power Marketing Association PMA. Sources of information for forecasts include ACMAD, COLA, CPTEC, CPC/NOAA, CMC, Department of Natural Resources (Queensland, Australia), NIWA, ECMWF, Indian Meteorological Department,  PAGASA, Bureau of Meterology, and the South African Weather Bureau.