Climate Update for Asia   A look at climate, its impacts and outlook in Asia Updated January 2001 Hot Topics Drought related food shortages in Armenia and Afghanistan  Dzud Developing in Mongolia Food Concerns Mount following Indonesia Floods  Indian Summer Monsoon yields 92% of Mean Rainfall Floods and Cyclone but Water  Shortage likely in Sri Lanka in JFM 2001 Extreme Rainfall Deficit is Forecast for Malaysia, Northern Sumatra and Southern Thailand  Last season's floods  may be compounded by forecasted higher Rainfall in Philliphines and Sulawesi  Last season's drought may be compounded by forecasted low Rainfall in Sri Lanka/South India      Contents   Climate Impacts Hazards Agriculture Health Water Resources Climate Summary Precipitation Seasonal Precipitation Climatology: October to December Temperatures  Seasonal Temperature Climatology: October to December Oceanic Conditions January-March 2001 Forecasts Introduction Precipitation Seasonal Precipitation Climatology: January to March Temperature Seasonal Temperature Climatology: January to March Extreme Events Methods April to June 2001 Forecasts  Precipitation Temperature Forecast Evaluation for July-September 2000 Introduction Precipitation   Compiled by Lareef Zubair in consultation with the Climate Digest Team, based on material in IRI Climate Digest produced by Anji Seth and coworkers, IRI Map Room updated by Brad Lyon and Matt Barlow and Forecasts producted by IRI . Feedback: send e-mail to Lareef Zubair, lareef@iri.ldeo.columbia.edu  Climate Impacts Hazards December Mongolia Very low temperatures and snow forced one million head of livestock from  Ovorkhangai Province to warmer regions. According to the head of the Mongolian National  Emergency Committee, 90% of the territory in the western provinces is covered by 20-30cm of  snow and nightime temperatures have dropped to as low as -39C. News reports indicate that the  early snowstorms have killed almost 16,000 head of livestock and more losses are expected.  Mongolia has seen drought conditions during the summer of 1999, followed by one of the worst  winters in 30 years during the 1999-2000 winter season (over 2.4 million head of livestock were  lost). During the summer of 2000 - the climatological rainy season - much of the area experienced  drought.  (OCHA, OCHA) See temperature anomalies for Asia.  Indonesia  Heavy rain and mudslides in the North Sulawesi region of eastern Indonesia killed 4  people and forced 10 000 to evacuate the area. A tropical storm caused flash floods on Sumbawa  island, also in eastern Indonesia early in the month. The Indonesian Red Cross distributed food and  shelter materials to tens of thousands of flood and landslide victims following heavy rains in  November and early December.  (IFRC) See precipitation anomalies for Asia.  Sri Lanka  Cyclone that cut across Sri Lanka and Southern extreme of India left 5 dead and 55,000 homeless leading to a housing compensation of US $300 million alone. This cyclone has been compounded by the recent flooding in the eastern region. Drought elsewhere in the Island left Hydropower reservoirs at 20% of their capacity in a period during which it is expected to be 100% full (Ceylon Daily News) November Sri Lanka  Heavy monsoon rains triggered flooding in eastern Sri Lanka. According to the Government, 400,000 people have been affected by the floods, while latest newspaper reports from Sri Lanka hold that about 100,000 families have been affected by the floods in the districts of Batticaloa (94,534 families) and Ampara (8,000 families) (OCHA) Indonesia  Torrential rains pounded the Indonesian island of Sumatra with dire consequences. The rain triggered floods in Aceh and North Sumatra and has caused further flooding, accompanied by landslides, in West Sumatra and neighbouring Riau and Jambi. The latest media reports indicate that over 100 people have been killed or are missing and that the number of victims is likely to augment. The floods and landslides have also damaged paddy fields and physical infrastructure including roads, bridges, electricity and telephone lines. (OCHA).  See precipitation anomalies for Asia.      October Central Asia Drought conditions in Georgia, Uzbekistan and Tajikstan severely stressed crops and reduced water levels in reservoirs. Unusually hot conditions prevailed in the region. Persistent drought conditions in Afghanistan and Armenia continued to stress crops and water resources. The World Food Program issued concerns about food shortages in the coming winter. (FAO, FAODRO Story) India and Bangladesh  The India Meteorological Department indicated the 2000 summer monsoon was 92% of its long-term average, making it a "normal monsoon" (a normal monsoon is within 10% of the long-term average). For some sections of NW India it was the second year with below average rainfall. The Hindustan Times reported that severe drought in the Chattisgarh region continues to affect 7 districts resulting in substantial migration from the region. Meanwhile, in the northeast, unusually heavy rains resulted in flooding that has claimed over 1,250 lives in India and rendered 300,000 homeless in Bangladesh since September of 2000. (Reuters) Southeast Asia  In Cambodia continued heavy rains during the month contributed to additional flash flooding. Flooding along the Mekong river and its tributaries have affected an estimated 2.7 million Cambodians and left more than 270 people dead since July 2000. (DRO) According to the Vietnamese Government, Southern Vietnam was experiencing its worst flooding in 74 years. Floodwaters began to decrease during October, but remained at very high levels. Heavy rains later in the month produced additional flash flooding and mudslides. Floodwaters are not expected to subside until late November or December. The number of fatalities from this year's flooding has risen to 463. (OCHA, DRO) Agriculture December Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran:  Significant rain increased moisture reserves in the eastern Mediterranean and Iran. (JAWF) November Pakistan Drought conditions over the past year have reduced overall water levels to 65% of the long-term average. The most affected areas are sectors within Sindh and most of Balochistan. The drought has resulted in considerable loss of livestock and natural resources. About 2.2 million people are affected. (OCHA) Indonesia The heavy rains in northern and western Sumatra have resulted in damage to thousands of hectares of dry season rice, which was near harvest. More rains forecast as the North East Monsoon sets in. The FAO has issued a special report as food concerns mount following the serious floods. (FAO) Health October Bangladesh  With recent heavy rains, Dengue cases have risen to 4,223 since the beginning of July, with at least 77 deaths. A Diarrhoea outbreak affecting more than 700 persons has also been reported in the local media. (ProMED, ProMED) Saudi Arabia and Yemen Since the beginning of the Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak in September 2000, the death toll has climbed to 91 in Saudi Arabia, with 508 reported cases. In Yemen, 109 deaths from RVF have been reported. This virus causes disease in livestock, but can be transmitted to humans by mosquitoes or from contact with infected animals. September's heavy rainfalls in the southern border city of Jizan, Yemen have provided ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. (ProMED) Sri Lanka Due to an outbreak of dengue, associated with recent monsoonal rains, Sri Lanka's Health Ministry ordered the closing of 40 schools and one of the country's largest universities. 145 cases of dengue have been reported with 3 deaths. (ProMED, DISCOVERY) Water Resources December Sri Lanka Anomalously low monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka has led to receding water levels in reservoirs used for irrigation and hydro-power. Usually at the end of monsoon in December, the operators attempt to fill up the reservoirs, however, this year the storage is only 20% of capacity. (Ceylon Daily News) Iran Two years of consecutive drought, considered the worst since 1964, has affected more than 37 million people - over half of the national population. The drought was especially harsh in 18 of the 28 provinces and crop yields were down significantly. Up to 80% of drinking water wells have failed in some areas, either drying up, or becoming contaminated with salt water. Recent rains, mainly in the northwest of the country and along the Caspian coast, have helped to ease conditions there, but water table levels still remain very low. November Pakistan Water levels remain at low levels in many irrigation reservoirs due to drought over the past 2 years and a lack of significant precipitation over the past few months. Unless recharged, the current low water levels will limit canal irrigation water availability, impacting the current growing season. (OCHA, CIP) October Tajikistan The water level in the reservoir at Norak hydro-electric power station was reported to be an unprecedented 8 meters below average for the current time of year, fueling fears of power shortages this winter. A government resolution was issued limiting the use of power. Tajikistan is also facing a projected 300,000 metric ton food shortage. 1.9 million people are believed to be severely affected by the continued drought conditions.(PMA) Uzbekistan The Karakalpakstan region, just south of the Aral Sea, has been particularly hard hit by drought conditions and faces possible food shortages in the coming winter. More than a third of Uzbekistan's 24 million population are suffering from drought which has led to crop failures and shortages of drinking water. The Aral Sea - the world's 4th largest inland body of water - has receded hundreds of miles since the 1960's mainly due to diversion of water for agricultural purposes. (Reuters) Turkey Drought conditions have led to the lowest water levels at hydro-electric plants in 10 years. The Turkish Prime Minister announced a number of power saving measures to decrease demand for electricity. The current drought has added to an already serious power shortage in Turkey due to the county's growing energy demand and a lack of investments in the energy sector. (PMA)   Climate Summary for Asia   Rainfall Sumatra (Indonesia), Malaysia, Southern Thailand, Cambodia and Laos experienced very high rainfall from October to December 2000. Tadzhikistan, Uzbekistan, Krygyzstan and Eastern Kazakhstan had moderately high rainfall which after the droughts of the last two years.  The rainfall in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar showed a deficit. Precipitation Anomaly For the Periods from October to December 2000. [ ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp ) - ( NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS_OPI v9906 mean prcp climatology ) ] * 3-month (ending on date shown) Precip. Anomaly [cm] Map from IRI Map Room

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia, Map derived from IRI Map Room

Temperature

Vast regions of North Asian in in Central Siberia in Russia Eastern Mongolia and North-Eastern China experienced an anomolously cold start to the winter. Temperature in Pakistan and North-West India showed a modest positive departure from climatology.

mean [ NOAA NCEP CPC CAMS anomaly temp ]

 
Global Sea Surface Temperatures

 Tropics:  Surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific remained somewhat
 below average indicating continued, but weak, La  Nina conditions.    The western Pacific
 and central Indian oceans remained unusually warm during the month.

 Midlatitudes:  Above average water temperatures persisted to the south of Australia.
 Warmer than average conditions developed along coastal areas of southern Africa and
 persisted in the Sea of Japan and the central North Atlantic.
 

Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Difference on January 3, 2001  from the 1950-1979 mean, with data from the Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA.
Map from IRI Map Room

Climate Forecasts for Asia

January - March 2001 Seasonal Forecast
Introduction

 In December 2000, the IRI has prepared an experimental Climate Outlook for
 January-June 2001. Presented here is the Outlook for the period January - March 2001.
 The complete forecast with discussion can be found at
 http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/ .

 This Climate Outlook is dependent on the quality of the sea surface temperature (SST)
 predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful
 information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed evolution of SSTs.
 Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here.
 The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat
 different from those used by National Meteorological Services in particular regions and
 may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas.
 

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia Map from IRI Map Room

Precipitation Forecast Discussion: Enduring drought forecasts for Sri Lanka and extreme south of India can exacerbate the drought in the previous season. However, drought forecasts for Sumatra, Malaysia, Thailand and parts of Java (Region XV) and South-Eastern China,  Koreas and Japan ((Region XVI)  may not be as important given the floods in the previous season.The high rainfalls forecasted for Philliphines and Sulawesi may compound high rainfall from the previous seasons.

DATA: M. New, Univ. of East Anglia Map from IRI Map Room

Temperature Forecast Discussion: High temperatures forecasted for Philliphines, Borneo, Sarawak, Sabah, Brunei, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya and Papua New Guinea coupled with saturation of the soil from the floods in the previous season may  combine to engender conditions for diseases outbreaks.

Extreme Events

•  greatly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over southern Thailand, most of Malaysia and northern Sumatra are forecast for JFM 2001

• Slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over parts of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan;
• Slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over parts of Thailand, Cambodia, and southern-most Vietnam;
• Slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation over much of the Philippines;
• Slightly enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation over Malaysia, Borneo, Celebes, Java, and most of Sumatra;

• Slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over a large region covering southeastern Asia, including eastern and southern parts of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, southern China, much of Thailand, Laos, and northern Vietnam;
• A smaller region of enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over eastern Myanmar, northern Thailand, much of Laos, and northern Vietnam;
• Greatly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over southern Philippines, and central parts of Indonesia, extending into the western Pacific and over the Solomon Islands;
•  Slightly enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures from the west of Borneo to the dateline and covering all of Australia;

The following procedures and information were used to prepare this Climate Outlook:

• Coupled ocean-atmosphere model predictions of tropical Pacific SST -- particularly heavy weighting has been given to the NOAA /NCEP, Climate Modeling Branch coupled model
• Statistical forecasts of Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature
• The response of Atmospheric global circulation model (GCM) predictions to the present and predicted SST patterns

Statistical analyses

Introduction

Date and Period of Forecast
In June 2000, the IRI prepared a Climate Outlook for July-September 2000. Here we provide a subset of the June Net Assessment Forecast with observed rainfall percentiles for the same period for qualitative verification. The complete forecast and validation maps for July-September 2000, in addition to the current forecast for October-December 2000, can be found at http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecasts/net_asmt/.

Uncertainties
This Climate Outlook is dependent on the quality of the sea surface temperature (SST) predictions. For the tropical Pacific, these predictions can be expected to provide useful information, but there is some uncertainty concerning the detailed evolution of SSTs.  Spread in global SST predictions is a source of uncertainty in the Outlook provided here. The procedures, models, and data used to derive this Climate Outlook may be somewhat different from those used by National Meteorological Services in particular regions and may differ from the official forecasts issued in those areas.

Regional Influences
The current status of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasting allows prediction of spatial and temporal averages, and does not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability. This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas; local variations should be expected. For further information concerning this and other guidance products, users are strongly advised to contact their National Meteorological Services.

Precipitation Outlook
The Outlook for July-September 2000 can also be found at http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/forecasts/net_asmt/.

Maps show expected precipitation probabilities in tercile classes. The maps indicate probabilities that seasonal precipitation will fall into the wettest third of the years (top number), the middle third of years (middle number) or the driest third of the years (bottom). An outlook of climatology "C" (light grey) indicates equal probabilities in each class; i.e., there is no basis for favoring the forecast of any particular category. Areas marked "D" (dark grey) experience a pronounced dry season during the forecast period, typically receiving less than 15% of their annual precipitation or less than 5 cm total during this three-month period. Boundaries between sub-regions should be considered transition zones, and their location considered to be only qualitatively correct.



IRI Forecast for July to September 2000
Map from IRI Forecasts
 
 
 

July-September 2000 Precipitation Probabilities and Observed Precipitation Anomalies. Precipitation anomalies are shaded ONLY for "above-normal" (above 67%-ile) and "below-normal" (below 33%-ile)
Map from IRI Climate Digest.